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-- David Kilcullen ('Counterinsugency' Dedication)
“With no other security forces on hand, U.S. military was left to confront, almost alone, an Iraqi insurgency and a crime rate that grew worse throughout the year, waged in part by soldiers of the disbanded army and in part by criminals who were released from prison.”
-- John Spratt
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-- Joseph Stalin
"In 1991 the Gulf War showed everyone how not to fight us, but the 2003 invasion of Iraq showed everybody how to fight us."
-- David Kilcullen
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-- Old MOUT Adage

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— Small Wars Manual, 1940

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Journal

Perspective: The Caribbean's metastasizing gang threat needs coordinated regional responses

by Robert Muggah, by Rajeev Gundur | Mon, 04/15/2024 - 5:42pm | 0 comments

This opinion piece by SWJ−El Centro Fellow Robert Muggah and transnational organized crime scholar Rajeev Gunnar looks at surging criminal violence and gang proliferation in the Caribbean.

Pattern of Collapse in North Korea

by Robert Collins | Thu, 04/11/2024 - 8:34am | 0 comments

The purpose of this paper is to examine foreseeable patterns of social infrastructure collapse, as brought on by severe resource shortage, and to provide a perspective of the subsequent effects upon the nKorean administrative and political systems. This paper will discuss general, baseline political consequences resulting from these shortages, and link these consequences to a framework of phases leading to the collapse of the nKorean administrative and political systems. This examination employs assessments based in structure-functionalism analyses of the nKorean administrative system coupled with behavioral analyses of historical Korean socio-political patterns (though the details of those analyses are not included in this paper). This paper will avoid discussion of war except as a calculated alternative to prevent irreparable fracture to the nKorean political system, which would be perceived by the current leadership as the end of their regime.

A ‘USEFUL FICTION’ ALTERNATIVE FUTURE?

by Isaiah Wilson III | Tue, 04/09/2024 - 10:06am | 0 comments

The "Battle of the Straits" catalyzes a new era in international relations as the great powers realize that a prolonged conflict would lead to mutual economic destruction and global destabilization. It prompts a comprehensive reassessment of foreign policy and the introduction of the "3D+C Integrated Statecraft Solutions" approach—an amalgamation of Diplomacy, Development, Defense, and Commerce to address the complex challenges posed by compound maritime insecurity.

Charting Strategies: Analyzing Taliban and Regional Resolve in Combating ISIS-K

by Mahmut Cengiz | Mon, 04/08/2024 - 6:07pm | 0 comments

This essay by assess potential regional and global responses to current ISIS-K activities.

“The Battle of the Straits: A Geopolitical Maelstrom”

by Isaiah Wilson III | Sun, 04/07/2024 - 9:14pm | 0 comments

This near-future vignette posits a scenario where maritime chokepoints become the stages for a new brand of warfare—a conflict fought in the shadows, where the weapons are as likely to be cyber as they are to be traditional arms. It underscores the fragility of global trade networks and the precariousness of geopolitics in a multipolar world where strategic waterways have become the chessboard for Great Power confrontation. ]

COMPOUND MARITIME (IN)SECURITY

by Isaiah Wilson III | Sat, 04/06/2024 - 12:33pm | 0 comments

Challenges to maritime security, especially in choke points like the Red Sea, threaten global trade and present complex, ‘compound security’ issues. These challenges include military threats to navigation that affect energy supplies, economic stability, and efforts to address climate insecurity issues, and especially through energy transition. The United States' Operation Prosperity Guardian seeks to safeguard the waters of the Red Sea and the Bab al Mandeb strait but has had limited success. Current military and diplomatic strategies are inadequate to fully protect these vital economic lifelines, hence the need for a multifaceted "3D+C" approach—combining Defense, Diplomacy, Development, and Commercial strategies.

Third Generation Gangs Strategic Note No. 56: The Tren de Aragua in Chile: The Ronald Ojeda Kidnapping and Murder Case

by Diego Ramírez Sánchez, by John P. Sullivan | Fri, 03/29/2024 - 10:55pm | 0 comments

This research note examines the kidnapping and murder of former Venezuelan military officer, Lieutenant Ronald Ojeda by suspected members of the Tren de Aragua gang in Chile.

SWJ El Centro Book Review – Frontera: a journey across the US-Mexico Border

by Daniel Weisz | Fri, 03/29/2024 - 10:22pm | 0 comments

SWJ−El Centro Associate reviews "Frontera: a journey across the US-Mexico Border" by Sergio Chapa and Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera.

Ukrainian F-16s and All NATO Aircraft Should Be Properly Armed with Precision-Guided Cluster Munitions- JSOW and WCMD Weapons

by Dan Rice | Wed, 03/27/2024 - 6:53am | 0 comments

F-16s will soon be arriving in Ukraine. That is publicly available information. What is not known, is what armaments packages they will bring- what rockets, missiles, electronic warfare, navigation systems and bombs they will carry. We have, in the past, sent in weapons platforms with the suboptimal weapons for the Ukrainian mission, and we should not make that mistake again with the F-16s.

Third Generation Gangs Strategic Note No. 55: Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) Expanding its Reach to Chile

by John P. Sullivan, by Diego Ramírez Sánchez | Mon, 03/25/2024 - 9:37pm | 0 comments

Brazil’s Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) is expanding its reach into Chile. The group, also known in English, as the First Capital Command is reportedly consolidating its expansion into Chile. This expansion is triggering intense political debate in Chile as the Chilean state seeks to come to terms with transnational organized crime’s impact on the local criminal ecosystem and challenges state capacity to address globalized gangs.